The Big 12 is meeting for what is expected to be the final time regarding conference expansion. They have had countless meetings and studies as well as one on one interviews with potential expansion candidates. I break down all the possible scenarios (although you never know with this conference) below and how they affect our Cincinnati Bearcats…
Big 12 Expands/Adds UC
UC Impact: Best Case Scenario
Pop open the champagne and let the parades begin, this is the best possible scenario for UC. We’re looking at P5 status again, waving good-bye to the American and hello being important again. Mostly, we’re talking about $$$, and lots of it. Even if UC is taking a smaller portion for the first few years of membership, you bet your ass it’s a lot more than we’re making now. Remember when Big East logos were everywhere around campus? Get ready for that again, except this time there will be big 12 logos everywhere. The stadium will need to be expanded, and the new basketball arena will fit in perfectly. Our dreams will have come true UC wil have made it.
How likely is this scenario? Sortof likely… New rumors swirl with the idea that the TV networks are offering the conference money NOT to expand. Let that sink in for a bit, they are paying the conference NOT to add our beloved Bearcats. Asshats. If that is true Texas will be fine not expanding because they will take even more money AND keep their current longhorn network which is a win win for them. Oklahoma would see that taking money now means giving up more money later in terms of a possible conference network, so they would likely fight Texas leading to the following…
Big 12 Does not Expand, No new Grant of Rights
UC Impact: Still okay for UC
While this isn’t the best-case scenario for UC we still win a bit. This paves the way for more conference expansion later when the grant of rights ends for the Big12. Even if 8 of the 10 current teams find homes, if there are 4 16 team super conferences that leaves 2 big twelve schools left out. They will end up as independents or joining the American. This means more money for UC, and a bit of a step up in terms of brand recognition on our slate. I’m thinking TCU/Baylor/TT may need to join the American. What’s just as likely is only a few of Big 12 teams leaving (OU, Kansas, Texas) and leaving the other schools to add whoever they can. The NCAA appears to be willing to allow the remaining conference to keep its p5 status, so UC could get an invite to the gutted Big12, but that’s still a wi for our school in terms of money and prestige.
How likely is this scenario? I think this is the most likely. Texas and Oklahoma just cannot get on the same page, and all of the other schools seem too oblivious that they have a say in this nightmare to fix what’s already broken. Texas wants things to stay the same, and Oklahoma wants to compete with other conferences in terms of TV networks. The ACC is about to have their own network, and too bad for Fox because they could have competed with a FOX Big12 network (oh well, it’s fox so they’re not the smartest). Whether the big12 dissolves completely or back fills some larger schools leaving, UC wins.
Big 12 Doesn’t expand, renews grant of rights
UC Impact: Not good.
This is not good for UC because it means the Big 12 isn’t expanding and decided th
at the conference is going to push back the expiration date, meaning UC is stuck in the AAC for wh\
o knows how long. This isn’t worst-case scenario, but it’s close. They could always expand in the future, but they’re going to want to end this PR nightmare and call it quits on the expansion rumors ASAP so I doubt it.
How likely is this? Highly unlikely. Oklahoma and Texas are not going to just let bygones be bygones and settle down for the long haul together. This is one of the things the conference should do if it wants to live, but the conference seems to just want to die and move on so don’t expect this out of tomorrows press conference.
Big 12 Expands but doesn’t Add UC
UC Impact: End of Days
This is the big one. The worst, horrible, end of days scenario for UC. To you American Conference lovers out there who think we can build this conference up to one of the p6 and make more money and live happily ever after, it’s not going to happen. When we re-negotiate this contract ESPN is going to offer peanuts. How do I know that? They’ve already done it to the other G5 networks. ESPN is hurting, but they need to offer more money to the P5’s every time contract negotiations come up. How do they do this? Give the little guys less. Still not sold? What if we lost Houston? Or Houston AND Memphis? See this conference moving on after that? As someone who used to watch UC play Pitt, WVU, UL, Syracuse, AND Buttgers on a yearly basis I can’t bear to think about being doomed here forever. We’d have to seriously change our way of life because we’re over paying coaches to be G5, it’s why our subsidy is so high. Hopefully the Nippert and 5/3 luxury seating will hope offset some of it, but without the P5 money we need to keep growing we just can’t.
How likely is this? Again, unlikely. If you’re going to expand you kindof need UC to not entirely screw over WVU. If you split the Big 12 into divisions it isn’t too bad for WVU adding UC and Memphis (not going to happen, but still), not adding UC at all means no break in travel for WVU. I’m not sure who the other partner would be (of if there are 2-4 added) but i’m pretty sure one of them is UC.
Who knows if this is what will actually happen, for all we know another scenario in which the Big 12 mashes with the Mountain West could be presented because it’s the big 12 and nobody ever really knows what the hell is going on… All I can say is buckle up Bearcats, after tomorrow it could be a new round of alignment rumors.
